After flatlining, global emissions are rising again #globalclimatebudget #COP23

In 2017 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to grow by 2.0% (+0.8 to +3.0%) This follows three years of nearly no growth (2014-2016) says the Global Climate Budget analysis.

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  1. Figures point to China as the main cause of the renewed growth in global emissions, with a 3.5% growth in emissions. CO2 emissions expected to decline by 0.4% from the USA and 0.2% from European Union. Increases in coal use in China and the US reverse the decline in previous years. India's emissions projected to be 2% growth down from an average of 6% growth over the last decade.
  2. Renewable energy has increased rapidly at 14% per year over the last five years, but it comes from a very low base.
  3. Lead researcher Prof Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre for climate change research at UEA said "Global CO2 emissions are going up once again after a three year stable period. This is very disappointing. With global CO2 emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2C let alone 1.5C."
  4. "This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes with stronger downpours of rain, higher sea levels and warmer ocean conditions favouring more powerful storms. This is a window into the future. We need to reach a peak in global emissions in the next few years and drive emissions down rapidly afterwards to address climate change and limit it's impacts" said Prof Quere.
  5. Dr Glen Peters of CICERO says "The global growth in emissions that we are seeing is caused by China - whose emissions are projected to grow by 3.5% this year as their production industry booms. Use of coal, the main fuel source in China, has risen by 3%, while hydro power generation has been lower than usual due to less rainfall.
  6. "However we are beginning to see that industrial growth in China is starting to settle down again, hydro output is picking up, and several political signals such as caps on winter coal use suggest that China's growing CO2 emissions will begin to slow down by the end of the year." said Dr Peters.
  7. "Policy makers in Bonn are preparing for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will start in 2018 and occur every five years and this puts immense pressure on the scientific community to develop methods and perform measurements that can truly verify changes to emissions within this five yearly cycle." said Prof Le Quere.
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