- The Six Major Adverse Shocks that Have Hit the U.S. Macroeconomy since 2005 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/12/the-six-major-adverse-shocks-that-have-hit-the-us-macroeconomy-since-2005.html …
//twitter.com/delong/status/679685674694397952
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 15:31:07 //twitter.com/greg_ip/status/679690941851144193
— Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Wed, Dec 23 2015 15:52:03- .@greg_ip (1) Back at Jackson Hole in 1992, LHS’s and my point that an inflation target much less than 5%/year had the strong drawback of
//twitter.com/delong/status/679705050613026817
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:48:07 - .@greg_ip (2) making it likely that we would have nasty experiences at the zero lower bound was countered. It was countered by people saying
//twitter.com/delong/status/679705188957949952
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:48:40 - .@greg_ip (3) that even if adverse shocks did drive the Fed to the ZLB sometime, such excursions to the ZLB would be rare and short.
//twitter.com/delong/status/679705568903233536
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:50:10 - .@greg_ip (4) Confidence in the durability of the “Great Moderation”, and the consequent belief that we did not need to worry about what
//twitter.com/delong/status/679705713787011072
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:50:45 - .@greg_ip (5) might happen in what @ojblanchard1 calls “dark corners” was, in retrospect—and some of us thought in prospect—very wrong. It
//twitter.com/delong/status/679705969790590976
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:51:46 - .@greg_ip (6) was, I think, a major element in what led the economics department to put itself in a position where it got itself schlonged
//twitter.com/delong/status/679706142130343938
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:52:27 - .@greg_ip (7) by reality since 2005 or so…
//twitter.com/delong/status/679706212401676288
— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong)Wed, Dec 23 2015 16:52:44 - @delong @GagnonMacro @nick_bunker @JHWeissmann @greg_ip @Neil_Irwin In 2008, Rogoff said 6% for 2 years wd be useful http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/inflation-is-now-the-lesser-evil …
//twitter.com/janzilinsky/status/679799549158899712
— Jan Zilinsky (@janzilinsky)Wed, Dec 23 2015 23:03:37 //twitter.com/greg_ip/status/679721233504546816
— Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:43:09//twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/679721297656426496
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:47:01//twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/679721372524781568
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:48:23- @JHWeissmann @delong @greg_ip there was some pretty thoughtful work here; clear now they might not have appreciated risk of hitting ZLB
//twitter.com/JoshZumbrun/status/679720377845690368
— Josh Zumbrun (@JoshZumbrun)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:49:01 //twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/679720322581540865
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:48:48- .@delong @JoshZumbrun @JHWeissmann Fed felt 2% reduced incidence, severity of ZLB, & target >2 changed little eg http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200570/200570pap.pdf …
//twitter.com/greg_ip/status/679728227598872577
— Greg Ip (@greg_ip)Wed, Dec 23 2015 18:20:12 //twitter.com/nick_bunker/status/679720744851476480
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:50:28- @nick_bunker @delong @JHWeissmann @greg_ip @Neil_Irwin NZ showed that 1 is too low. EMs seem happy with 3 or 4 but not more. --> 3% ?
//twitter.com/GagnonMacro/status/679726728516874240
— Joseph Gagnon (@GagnonMacro)Wed, Dec 23 2015 18:14:15 - @JHWeissmann @delong @greg_ip and as @Neil_Irwin shows, not like NZ govt had a super rigorous method for 2 percent http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/upshot/of-kiwis-and-currencies-how-a-2-inflation-target-became-global-economic-gospel.html …
//twitter.com/nick_bunker/status/679720966717587456
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:51:21 //twitter.com/BenDWalsh/status/679720820042788864
— Ben Walsh (@BenDWalsh)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:50:46- @JHWeissmann @delong @greg_ip not saying research is perfect etc but there's an idea that 2% was plucked from nowhere that's not quite right
//twitter.com/JoshZumbrun/status/679721777367519232
— Josh Zumbrun (@JoshZumbrun)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:54:35 - @JHWeissmann @delong @greg_ip this from 2000 is good and refers back to lot s of the 90s research on it http://eml.berkeley.edu/~akerlof/docs/inflatn-employm.pdf …
//twitter.com/JoshZumbrun/status/679721436358021120
— Josh Zumbrun (@JoshZumbrun)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:53:13 //twitter.com/JoshZumbrun/status/679721355999236096
— Josh Zumbrun (@JoshZumbrun)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:48:01//twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/679721383027343360
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:48:48- @JHWeissmann @delong @greg_ip there was some pretty thoughtful work here; clear now they might not have appreciated risk of hitting ZLB
//twitter.com/JoshZumbrun/status/679721411963834368
— Josh Zumbrun (@JoshZumbrun)Wed, Dec 23 2015 17:49:01
The Federal Reserve's 2%/Year Inflation Target Was a Mistake...
And making it part of the monetary constitution--not outlining circumstances under which it might be changed--was a bigger mistake...
by
J. Bradford DeLong2,446 Views
J. Bradford DeLong2,446 Views