As a Long-Term Political Issue, Gay Marriage will be More Like Abortion than Integration
The Supreme Court didn't rule on the constitutionality of state same-sex marriage bans this week, perhaps hoping that public opinion coul...- .@electionate re: your column, from WaPo ABC poll, Millennial Evangelicals at 64% support for SSM, and GOP'ers under 50 at 52%.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350421175589023744
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 01:11:33 - .@electionate and per Public Religion survey, Millennial GOPers at 58% for SSM; Millennial Evangelicals in this survey at 51% support.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350422399726006272
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 01:16:25 - .@electionate This makes your thesis trickier. I agree GOP & evang. will be biggest holdouts, but no demo is immune from this shift.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350422698335272960
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 01:17:36 - .@electionate This is fundamentally a generational thing but every group has shown signs of movement. Some more than others, but all moving.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350423142763741186
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 01:19:22 - .@alexlundry I believe these polls have big sample size issues. Pew based on 10k total, still only ~300 respondents, iirc
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350433998985637889
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:02:30 - @alexlundry I also find the wpost results/question inconsistent w results at ballot box in November
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350436588209192960
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:12:48 - @electionate Sure we can play that game; and I can say I have more than 1 independent sample to back up my point. Could also be wording.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350436671080243204
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:13:07 - @electionate Larger point is polls are conflicted. But we do know Evang Mill & GOP Mill more likely to support SSM than older counterparts.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350436928543399936
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:14:09 - @electionate And we also know that EVERY demo has seen upward trend in support for SSM.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350437097317998592
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:14:49 - @electionate Don't cherry pick - look at trends across polls. Evidence doesn't support that GOP and Evangelicals will remain holdouts.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350437549061308417
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:16:37 - @electionate Will they embrace it right away? Probably not, but there are clear generational differences and trend is up.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350437716883808256
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:17:17 - @alexlundry huh? Sorry, but the subsamples on the polls you cited are like 50 people, right?
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350437751583293440
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:17:25 - @alexlundry I'd love it if there were multiple data points on this, so I hope I'm wrong--but we're talking about subsamples of subsamples
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350438022111698948
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:18:29 - @electionate Low, but not that low ;)
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350438191997784064
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:19:10 - @alexlundry I mean, how? 18-29 yo white evang are like 3 or 4% of the electorate!!!!
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350438993147592708
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:22:21 - .@electionate I did a poll in 2011 w/583 Millennial GOPers. 74% supported some legal rights for gay couples. 40% for full marriage rights.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350441867483152384
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:33:46 - @alexlundry about same as pew, which was 38
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350444042661801984
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:42:25 - .@electionate Same poll: 257 Millennials w/Bible in HH, 67% support for some legal rights for gay couples. 30% for full marriage rights.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350442750044422144
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:37:17 - @alexlundry again, about same as pew...
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350444253916303361
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:43:15 - @electionate Yes but this was 2 yrs ago, you have the larger number for some legal rights, & we've seen upward trend in all other polls.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350444827680321540
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:45:32 - @electionate I'm out for the night - its been fun. Let's talk it out sometime over beers when we aren't limited to 140 characters.
http://twitter.com/alexlundry/status/350448054626828289
— Alex Lundry (@alexlundry)Fri, Jun 28 2013 02:58:21 - @alexlundry that's a fair point, although if you believe pew, those groups haven't budged much over the last decade
http://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/350481825291964417
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn)Fri, Jun 28 2013 05:12:33
