As a Long-Term Political Issue, Gay Marriage will be More Like Abortion than IntegrationThe Supreme Court didn't rule on the constitutionality of state same-sex marriage bans this week, perhaps hoping that public opinion coul...
.@electionate re: your column, from WaPo ABC poll, Millennial Evangelicals at 64% support for SSM, and GOP'ers under 50 at 52%.- .@electionate and per Public Religion survey, Millennial GOPers at 58% for SSM; Millennial Evangelicals in this survey at 51% support.
- .@electionate This makes your thesis trickier. I agree GOP & evang. will be biggest holdouts, but no demo is immune from this shift.
- .@electionate This is fundamentally a generational thing but every group has shown signs of movement. Some more than others, but all moving.
.@alexlundry I believe these polls have big sample size issues. Pew based on 10k total, still only ~300 respondents, iirc- @alexlundry I also find the wpost results/question inconsistent w results at ballot box in November
- @electionate Sure we can play that game; and I can say I have more than 1 independent sample to back up my point. Could also be wording.
- @electionate Larger point is polls are conflicted. But we do know Evang Mill & GOP Mill more likely to support SSM than older counterparts.
- @electionate And we also know that EVERY demo has seen upward trend in support for SSM.
- @electionate Don't cherry pick - look at trends across polls. Evidence doesn't support that GOP and Evangelicals will remain holdouts.
- @electionate Will they embrace it right away? Probably not, but there are clear generational differences and trend is up.
- @alexlundry huh? Sorry, but the subsamples on the polls you cited are like 50 people, right?
- @alexlundry I'd love it if there were multiple data points on this, so I hope I'm wrong--but we're talking about subsamples of subsamples
- @electionate Low, but not that low ;)
- @alexlundry I mean, how? 18-29 yo white evang are like 3 or 4% of the electorate!!!!
- .@electionate I did a poll in 2011 w/583 Millennial GOPers. 74% supported some legal rights for gay couples. 40% for full marriage rights.
- @alexlundry about same as pew, which was 38
- .@electionate Same poll: 257 Millennials w/Bible in HH, 67% support for some legal rights for gay couples. 30% for full marriage rights.
- @alexlundry again, about same as pew...
- @electionate Yes but this was 2 yrs ago, you have the larger number for some legal rights, & we've seen upward trend in all other polls.
- @electionate I'm out for the night - its been fun. Let's talk it out sometime over beers when we aren't limited to 140 characters.
- @alexlundry that's a fair point, although if you believe pew, those groups haven't budged much over the last decade
Lundry & Cohn Debate Same Sex Marriage Polling
Republican pollster Alex Lundry starts a Twitter debate with the New Republic's Nate Cohn on whether polls show movement on same-sex marriage among Republicans and evangelicals.
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