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Ten 2012 Electoral College predictions have Obama ahead

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  1. With the clock ticking down to Election Day, most political prognosticators see President Obama winning re-election, though his Electoral College count varies from 281 — just 11 votes over the 270 needed to win — to 332, below his 2008 win but still a healthy margin. 
  2. The nine predictions below agree on a few swing states: Romney will win North Carolina; Obama will win Nevada, Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire. They differ on Colorado, Virginia and Florida, however.
  3. Drew Linzer: Obama 332, Romney 206

  4. On his website Votamatic, Emory University political science professor Drew Linzer predicts a strong showing by Obama, with 332 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206. The map puts Romney-leaning North Carolina and Obama-leaning Florida as the closest calls, but even if he won both Romney would still lose in this projection.
  5. Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida. 
  6. Swing states for Romney: North Carolina.
  7. Josh Putnam: Obama 332, Romney 206

  8. Davidson College political science professor Josh Putnam gives Obama 332 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206, although that includes 81 Obama-leaning tossups, enough to swing the election to Romney if they weren't in the president's column. 
  9. Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire.
  10. Swing states for Romney: North Carolina
  11. Sam Wang: Obama 303, Romney 235

  12. Sam Wang, a statistical analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium, projects an Obama win with 303 Electoral College votes to Romney's 235, with Romney picking up Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, but Obama picking up swing states in the West and Upper Midwest.
  13. Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida.
  14. Swing states for Romney: Virginia, North Carolina.
  15. Nate Silver: Obama 303, Romney 235

  16. On his 538 blog on the New York Times' website, statistician Nate Silver projects a decent Obama win with 303 Electoral College votes to Romney's 235, with Obama doing well in the West and Upper Midwest and picking off Virginia while Romney does well among the Southern states.
  17. Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia.
  18. Swing states for Romney: North Carolina, Florida.
  19. Scott Elliott: Obama 290, Romney 248

  20. On his website Election Projection, independent conservative analyst Scott Elliott projects a narrow Obama win with 290 Electoral College votes to Romney's 248. He gives Southern swing states to Romney but sees Obama doing better in the South with his Midwestern firewall holding.
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