Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

Putting a marker down: People will fall all over themselves to praise any future sign of moderation in Trump's rhetoric. No. Rubicon=crossed

Sun, Mar 13 2016 20:53:30

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//twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/709120220833517568

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Sun, Mar 13 2016 20:53:30

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

At this point, I'm less outraged/surprised by the extent of Trump's public support than the passivity and acquiescence of so many elites

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:22:50

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//twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/709172904194396160

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:22:50

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

Sadly, we've known for decades that a subset of people have authoritarian tendencies and that hatred toward outgroups is often widespread

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:23:36

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//twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/709173094506741760

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:23:36

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

People's vulnerability to Trump-like figure hasn't changed. What changed is that the institutions of Am. govt./party system legitimized one

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:24:59

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:24:59

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

That's why I'm dubious about all the root cause psychologizing - where's data showing economic anxiety or racial hatred is that much higher?

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:26:26

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:26:26

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

Trump's rise represents a failure in American parties, media, and civic institutions - and they're continuing to fail right now

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:27:48

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:27:48

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

Shockingly few public figures and elites are defending the norms of public debate and restraint from violence that Trump is bulldozing.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:29:08

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:29:08

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

These norms are fragile precisely because, per @emilythorson, they are not formal or legal. And they are hard to restore once breached.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:30:13

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:30:13

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

No one person or institution is at fault for Trump. Everyone has their favorite monocausal explanation. They're all incomplete.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:31:28

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:31:28

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

We can sort through root causes later. Here's where we are: Someone could capture a major party nom who endorses violence & few seem alarmed

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:37:15

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:37:15

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

I honestly thought our institutions were more robust to a Trump-like figure & that others in public life were more committed to dem. norms

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:41:33

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:41:33

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

We may narrowly avert disaster per below but even if we do, no one should congratulate themselves on a great victory  https://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/709176665646039040 …

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:43:37

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//twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/709178134692814848

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:43:37

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

We're looking over the precipice and I mostly hear crickets. Trump could be on his way toward the GOP nomination after *Tuesday* night

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:46:28

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:46:28

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

One reason: much of the "this will end soon..." rationalizing (which I once shared) has now shifted to general. No one should be comforted.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:48:07

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:48:07

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

A major party nomination is a powerful thing. Millions of people will instinctively support Trump. Many/most GOP pols will back him.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:49:00

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:49:00

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

General elections can be won and lost on chance swings in the economy or foreign policy crises. There are no guarantees at that point.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:49:44

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//twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/709179672177844224

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:49:44

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

And even if Trump loses, the exits he could prompt from the party could leave his sympathizers with control of a major party going forward

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:50:43

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//twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/709179920468090880

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:50:43

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

Trumpism may yet be revealed as cult of personality with no staying power. He has no factional base or issue to realign party over long term

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:57:05

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:57:05

Brendan Nyhan@BrendanNyhan

But no one should be comforted about the point we're at with Trump or what it has revealed about the health of our political system.

Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:57:54

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— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan)Mon, Mar 14 2016 00:57:54