Improving the Reliability of Macroeconomic and Macrofiscal Forecasts

Oct 3-5, Ljubljana; supported by Bank of Slovenia

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  1. Thursday - Data Requirements & Wrap Up
  2. We concluded the workshop with group reflections on the lessons we'll share with colleagues, interesting topics for further learning, and the scope for further promotion of closer cooperation and peer-to-peer learning. The role of strengthened communication, informal working groups and sharing of practical experience have been especially emphasized.
  3. Wednesday - Key Institutional Issues
  4. In line with the EU law, independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) provide public assessments of compliance with national fiscal rules and produce or endorse macroeconomic forecasts. The EU fiscal framework sets only the basic requirements for the national IFIs. Consequently, the number, size, composition, mandate and position of IFIs differ across the EU. There is no one-type-fits all model of an IFI; its set-up should be adjusted to already existing institutional setting of a country.
  5. The typical elements that may enhance its effectiveness are: i) clearly defined remits, ii) nomination of members based on their competencies, iii) independence from political interference, iv) sufficient resources, v) good access to information, and vi) effective communication with the public.
  6. "Fiscal councils are independent public institutions aimed at strengthening commitments to sustainable public finances through various functions, including public assessments of fiscal plans and performance, and the evaluation or provision of macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts." Find more information at the IMF's Fiscal Council Data set:  http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/council/ 
  7. Tuesday - Forecasting Methodology & Accuracy
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