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Viewing the political landscape from the edge of the Fiscal Cliff

The House of Representatives misses the government's self-imposed deadline to craft a deficit reduction package by voting for new tax bill that's actually projected to increase the national deficit in the absence of future spending cuts.

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  1. The soon-to-be-expired 112th Congress spent the New Year''s Day holiday passing a compromise tax bill that may give the United States a respite from some of the immediate consequences of falling over the "fiscal cliff," but leaves many difficult problems left unsolved.
  2. The House of Representatives passed the bill at around 11 p.m. Eastern Time on Jan. 1, missing by one day the deadline Congress itself set to craft a deficit reduction package. The bill, to the consternation of Republicans who unsuccessfully sought spending cuts, is projected to lead to higher deficits given that Congress and the Obama Administration have yet to agree on a plan to cut government spending.
  3. President Obama said he will sign the law, and acknowledged during a late Tuesday press conference that the "messy process" of avoiding the fiscal cliff made business conditions even more uncertain and diminished consumer confidence.
  4. According to news from Washington, the legislation approved by the House and Senate will keep some tax breaks enacted during the Bush and Obama administrations on the books, but will raise working Americans' payroll tax liabilities, among other provisions. Politicians also have two months to figure out a plan to cut government spending.
  5. The bill, according to the Associated Press, also raises income taxes for individuals earning more than $400,000 or households with incomes greater than $450,000. It also extends aid for the long-term unemployed.
  6. Besides tax increases, the phrase "fiscal cliff" referred to major spending cuts that were scheduled to go into effect with the New Year. The irony is that none in Congress or the Obama Adminstration ever said they wanted these taxes or spending cuts to actually go into effect, but could not bring themselves to agree on a better idea during the the past year.
  7. What is the Fiscal Cliff? Everything You Need To Know
  8. The reported consensus was that these policies were so bad, Democrats and Republicans would have no choice but to negotiate something better. The UCLA Anderson Forecast, for example, had estimated the combined effects of the tax increases and spending cuts could take about $600 billion - 4 percent of GDP - from the economy.
  9. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office had similarly warned that a failure to to reach a fiscal compromise could lead to a new recession, but the threat of a politically self-inflicted downturn was not enough to get Republicans and Democrats to compromise. A deal proved elusive while the 2012 campaigns were at full speed and politicians continued to avoid compromise after the November elections gave President Obama another term and guaranteed Republican control of the House of Representatives.

    The question of whether to raise taxes on upper-income earners was perhaps the most frequently discussed part of the post-election argument over the fiscal cliff. Obama wanted higher taxes for the wealthy, while Republicans resisted.

    Both sides also found time to vacation over the Christmas holiday while their constituents were left to wonder what would happen to their tax bills. 
  10. Some early analysis portrays the outcome as a victory for President Obama, but the near-inability for the 112th Congress to compromise suggests the 113th will be similarly deadlocked after new members are sworn in on Thursday. The new Congress will not only be tasked with finding meaningful budget cuts, but is also expected to face what are sure to be tenacious debates over gun control and immigration.
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