Libya: Lessons and Prospects

On Sept. 19, The Fares Center hosted a roundtable discussion about events in Libya, featuring Fletcher professors William Rugh and Ibrahim Warde.

  1. We're here at @FletcherSchool to learn about "Libya: Lessons and Prospects" with Professors William Rugh and Ibrahim Warde.
  2. Prof. Mufti was unfortunately unable to make the event.
  3. Rugh: Libya is a story that changes everyday. It's a process.
  4. Rugh: The future remains to be determined, primarily by the people of Libya.
  5. Rugh: We don't know where Khaddafy is and when/whether he will be found and brought to justice in Libya.
  6. Rugh: We found Saddam Hussein in Iraq in nine months with thousands of US troops looking. Libya is larger, with no US troops on the hunt.
  7. Rugh: Khaddafy must be considering the fate of other fallen Middle East leaders, such as Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.
  8. Rugh: Libya lacks the structure on which to build a new social contract.
  9. Rugh is the Edward R. Murrow Visiting Professor Public Diplomacy and Visiting Scholar at the Fares Center on Eastern Mediterranean Studies.
  10. Rugh: Current leadership is transitional, not long term, unless they complete in a more free electoral system.
  11. Rugh: Are leaders like Libyan National Transitional Council Chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil tainted by prior association with Khaddafy?
  12. Rugh calls current Libyan transitional leadership "interesting" - some are Western educated and understand Western political systems.
  13. Rugh: They could bring some Western perspective to that task.
  14. Rugh: How will new leadership treat the old guard? Will they be allowed to retire peacefully, or put on trial? Too early to tell.
  15. Rugh describes the current situation in Libya as "opaque."
  16. What of Islam and the future of Libya? Asst. Sec of State Jeff Feldman visited Libya recently and commented on Islamist involvement. 1/2
  17. Rugh: Feldman said it seems to him leadership and rank and file of people who made the revolution are in very small % true Islamist.
  18. Rugh: Feldman also observed few women in transitional leadership and noted that U.S. looks to Libya to include women going forward.
  19. Rugh: Libya has indicated that women would become part of leadership, and Libyan women will surely look for this promise to be kept.
  20. Rugh: I don't think U.S. will play a major role in Libya. Won't be like Iraq or Afghanistan. No nation-building, no boots on the ground.
  21. Rugh: If U.S. to be involved at all, should be at Libyans' request.
  22. Rugh hands it over to Ibrahim Warde, Adjunct Professor of International Business at @FletcherSchool.
  23. Warde recalls previously being blacklisted from travel in Libya. He had been writing about terrorist financing.
  24. There was a 2003 incident involving Libya and a planned assassination of then-Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia that Warde wrote about.
  25. Warde: U.S. was skeptic on Libya until 2003. Other countries had been more willing to negage with Khaddafy on grounds that he had changed.

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