Science
Lewis and Ridley's claims about Aldrin et al. 2012
A discussion between Bishop Hill, Matt Ridley, and myself about Nic Lewis's and Matt Ridley's assertions about Aldrin et al. 2012
@mattwridley Can you provide either the title or the DOI for the Aldrin paper you cited in your WSJ piece? Thanks!- @aDissentient The one that finds an ECS of 2.5-3.3K when it bothers to account for clouds (4.8)? LOL.
@thingsbreak wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/19/why… Aldrin, M., et al., 2012. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitiv... Environmetrics, doi:10.1002/env.2140.- @mattwridley Did you personally read the paper? Where does the 1.6 number come from? Did you read section 4.8?
@thingsbreak Most likely values still only 2 ish. If we are to include cloud lifetime effect shld we include other highly uncertain effects?- @aDissentient If you're making a comparison to IPCC values, should use most apples-to-apples comparison, which Aldrin et al. discuss in 4.8.
- @aDissentient Where does the 1.6 value come from anyway? Literally doesn't exist in paper.
- @thingsbreak He got it by measuring the graph (It's actually slightly lower I believe).
- @thingsbreak lewis calculated it from aldrin's paper's data/charts and aldrin agreed it is correct
- @mattwridley Aldrin agreed that apples to apples comparison with IPCC ECS estimates is 1.6K? Doubtful. Directly contradicts paper itself.
