Twitter Round Table on Targeting Core Inflation

  1. Yes! It is too much to expect to use Fed's interest rate policy to stop bubbles. Plosser--FOMC Job: Stop Inflation on.wsj.com/RzntpR
  2. @mileskimball In addition to debate btw focusing on asset vs consumer price inflation, there's also the question of the dual mandate?
  3. .@JonathanProber Dual mandate not an issue because keeping output at its natural level is the same thing as keeping core inflation steady.
  4. .@JonathanProber Note: the idea that core inflation will be steady if output is kept to natural level is called the "Divine Coincidence."
  5. @mileskimball But isn't means to the ends an issue as far as impt of order - isn't price stability better focus than unee for monetary pol?
  6. .@JonathanProber Because the effects of monetary policy on prices have a longer lag than the effects on unemployment, data on both valuable
  7. .@JonathanProber Not necessarily. I think stabilizing core inflation is, in itself, more important than stabilizing headline inflation.
  8. .@JonathanProber Metaphorically, the reason is that pushing the sticky prices in core inflation around is what generates heat from friction
  9. @mileskimball Only if headline converges to core though, right? If not, then shouldn't one be more focused on headline?
  10. .@JonathanProber No, core inflation is more important because it gums up the price system as some sticky prices move before others.
  11. .@JonathanProber If only the flexible prices move to generate headline, but not core inflation, there is no distortion of price signals.
  12. @mileskimball Understd for policy assessmt and action - curious if u feel headline needs converge core long term to ensure rel stab prices?
  13. .@JonathanProber I don't see any reason that oil prices, for example, couldn't have an upward trend relative to other prices.
  14. .@JonathanProber Or food prices could have a downward trend relative to other prices.
  15. .@JonathanProber And there is no reason oil or food prices relative to other prices couldn't have permanent shocks.
  16. .@JonathanProber Oil and food prices do have some temporary movements. Fed is emphasizing that argument because the other is hard to explain
  17. @mileskimball I agree with everything you've just said - but wouldn't one take any permanent changes into acct since part of prices paid?
  18. @mileskimball @JonathanProber current core forecasts future headline better than current headline ... that's why core of interest
  19. @Claudia_Sahm @mileskimball Understand core is better in theory - curious whether you think better forecasting power continues?
  20. @Claudia_Sahm @mileskimball Arguably very easy global monetary policy could allow food and oil prices to more likely outpace other prices?
  21. .@JonathanProber With electronic money, the trends in oil and food prices matter for getting the long-run inflation target of zero right.
  22. .@JonathanProber But the actual target for the Fed to focus on will still be a long-run target for core inflation.
  23. .@JonathanProber The long-run target for core inflation should be somewhat different from 0 to counterbalance trends in oil and food prices.

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Miles Kimball

Professor of Economics and Survey Research at the University of Michigan

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