The possible Russian solution for Cyprus

It has a certain plausibility to it. My two objections are listed at the bottom. The ECB ELA doesn't work like that, and the ESM unlikely to be convinced. The ECB Risk Control Framework has been used a lot as a simple instrument of political control in the past ...

  1. Ok let me explain how Cyprus MIGHT be able to call Merkel/ the Dutch guy's bluff and bail itself out, ie find the £6bn itself.
  2. First: raise £2-3bn from the Russians, possibly by selling a bank.
  3. Second: raise the rest from accessing the cash reserves of the pensions schemes of state companies and the banks: I'm told about £3bn
  4. Third: recapitalize the banks with that money. At this point the ECB has a legal requirement to support a solvent bank with liquidity
  5. Fourth: use promise of future gas revenues to fill the pension black holes, maybe back the Russian concerns.
  6. Fifth: for government debts bluff €group into giving the €10bn. Or stagger on till next debt deadline in June
  7. Basically it's about the gas. Cyprus may be in huge trouble short term. But no other programme nation has this...
  8. not my plan. But what I heard about the rough contours of what Cyprus might be trying to do. Finance minister heading for Moscow tomorrow.
  9. Third: recapitalize the banks with that money. At this point the ECB has a legal requirement to support a solvent bank with liquidity
  10. @faisalislam I don't think this is true. ELA can be vetoed by a simple majority on the Governing Council for any reason or none
  11. @dsquareddigest yep I haven't checked this. That was the understanding of someone familiar with some Cypriot thinking.
  12. Fifth: for government debts bluff €group into giving the €10bn. Or stagger on till next debt deadline in June

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Dan Davies

it's not me, it's the blogs that have got small

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