Is there any evidence for this? RT @aburnspolitico Dems also remember that process-y stuff like the "Cornhusker kickback" hurt badly in '10
@BrendanNyhan Yes, there is evidence, if you consider the informed assessment of many Dems who experienced 2010 to be evidence.- @aburnspolitico OK. Defensive! Just asking. I co-wrote a whole article on HCR hurting Ds themonkeycage.org/wp-content/upl… Not sure re: process part tho.
- @BrendanNyhan In my experience, you make up your mind before you start asking questions.
- @aburnspolitico Well, we have strong theory/evidence that most voters know nothing about Cong. process - baseline *should be* skepticism
- @aburnspolitico But I'm open to evidence to contrary - preferably more solid than anecdotal observations. Pre/post-kickback polls?
- @BrendanNyhan If you don't think that the messy process around health care hurt Dems in '10, that's fine, but not my job to convince you.
- @aburnspolitico Was drop in support in 12/09 (kff.org/kaiserpolls/up… p. 14) but not clear how to separate kickback from other factors
- @aburnspolitico Nor that anyone remembered it almost a year later when voting, particularly outside Nebraska
- @BrendanNyhan Not the kickback alone, obviously. The whole messy process. Come on.
- @aburnspolitico OK, fair enough. If we take process as whole, two Qs: (1) does any bill that controversial/complex pass w/o a messy process?
- @aburnspolitico (2) how much of drop was process itself versus partisan conflict leading to greater GOP opp., more negative coverage, etc.
- @BrendanNyhan Neither question is relevant to my original point, which was that Ds think process can help them in '14 as it hurt in '10
- @aburnspolitico Which is interesting - more reason to think about this. My claim is we should be skeptical that voters care about process.
- @aburnspolitico Best case: Messy process might stimulate more negative press coverage and/or fire up base in low-turnout midterm
- @aburnspolitico Worst case: Only hardcore partisans even know about process, no one's mind changes, and everyone forgets by November
- @BrendanNyhan Remember when I said "Bridge to Nowhere"? This conversation is what I was talking about
- @BrendanNyhan This is just a series of rigged questions and false binaries that have little to do with the original topic of discussion
brendannyhan
Brendan Nyhan
Political scientist and media critic. Currently Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~nyhan/
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