Debating Mitt Romney's Proposal for Tax Reform

Avik Roy of the Manhattan Institute, Ryan Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform, and Josh Barro of Bloomberg debate the plan.

  1. Earlier this week, I published a detailed discussion of Mitt Romney's tax-reform proposal on my Forbes blog, The Apothecary
  2. That discussion centers around a report by a left-of-center think tank, the Brookings-Urban Tax Policy Center (TPC). The TPC authors argue that Romney's tax plan, by promising to cut tax rates for everyone while maintaining revenue neutrality, will result in an $86-billion-per-year tax increase on the middle class. In my report, I point out that with five minor adjustments to the TPC's assumptions, that $86 billion tax increase is reversed into a $40 billion decrease.
  3. On the same day I published my piece, Josh Barro wrote in Bloomberg View that Romney's plan doesn't add up.
  4. Later that day, Ryan Ellis, Director of Tax Policy at the Americans for Tax Reform, tweeted about my piece, and asked Josh what he thought about it. Here's their exchange. I've annotated their conversation to explain the abbreviations they're using.
  5. RT @aviksaroy: Tax Experts Show Why Mitt Romney's Middle-Class Tax Cut Would Work: onforb.es/VPJ4Ma @Forbes
  6. @jbarro given your column today, what is your response to @aviksaroy's column on the pay-fors? onforb.es/VPJ4Ma
  7. @jbarro your analysis also doesn't account for things that grow high inc AGI: emp health ins, carryover basis, muni bond int, and life ins
  8. AGI = Adjusted Gross Income.
  9. @RyanLEllis TPC has done this math, but a key thing to note is getting to $0 shortfall isn't enough.
  10. @RyanLEllis that analysis is based on a cliff where all filers over $200k AGI have deductions immediately stripped.
  11. @jbarro but you can't leave out the big plus-ups to AGI and say that there aren't enough base broadeners
  12. @RyanLEllis you need a lot of margin on the shortfall to avoid unacceptably high marginal rates in a phaseout range.
  13. @jbarro base broadening is both deduction limitation AND taxable income expansion. the former isn't treated in your article.
  14. @jbarro key AGI boosters: HI premiums, muni bond int, life ins buildup, and carryover basis. plus brill's point about obamacare.
  15. HI = Health Insurance.
  16. @RyanLEllis HI premiums are a larger share of income for people lower on the income scale, I discuss them, they bolster my point
  17. @RyanLEllis the rest of those items are much smaller than the HI premiums.
  18. @jbarro according to my read of SOI, tax-exempt int in >$200k totals ~ $36 bil in income (so about $10 bil/yr in tax under romney plan)
  19. SOI = the IRS's Statistics of Income.
  20. @jbarro there are 4 mil >$200k households. assume avg $10k in HI premiums, 28% rate. that brings in about $11 bil per year

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Avik S. A. Roy

Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Healthcare policy writer for Forbes & National Review. Romney advisor. Independent healthcare investment analyst.

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