Storify by Rick Wilson

Contra Inevitability

Earlier tonight, I had a mini-rant after reading one of the endless Obama-Is-Inevitable stories based on the flimsy wisps of a few post-DNC polls. This is by no means a complete argument, so if I can get some time off from saving the Republic, I'll write it out more thoroughly.

Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
Why the Media Predict-o-Herd is wrong 1.They ignore the coming ad blitz and cash advantage Romney holds.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:01:43
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
2. They’re not sensitive to the economy, but voters are. Parse it all ya want, but voters think the economy is in the dumper.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:02:31
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
3. No one wants to admit the 2008 Reverse Bradley Effect w suburban voters from 2008, but it’s gone now, and they know it.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:04:35
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
4. After 200 million against Romney and a thousand hits by press stenographers running Chicago’s hits, Romney is alive…and inoculated.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:06:32
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
5. Registration numbers in key states ain’t pretty for Obama: in 2008 Dems had a 670k reg adv in Fl and he barrrely won. Now? Only 440k.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:09:00
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
5a. Run that model with 08 numbers and Romney wins FL, even w/o any other externalities.)
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:10:15
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
6. In 2008 by this time McCain campaign was broke, largely off the air in key states and rudderless. Opposite now true.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:14:31
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
7. Media folks largely don’t get the deep rupture Obama has caused w people of faith, because they live in very secular world.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:19:16
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
7b. From the HHS mandate to the DNC’s “Abortion Is Teh Awesome!” night to Dems booing God, to Israel, Team O is either tone deaf or hostile
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:22:03
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
8. The same “Democrat victory is inevitable” stories from every cycle except 84 are an echo of the era of Gang of 500 agenda power.
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:29:19
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
9. Romney won the primary by a willingness to cut throats, and by surprisingly strong debate kills. Gee…
Sat, Sep 08 2012 19:30:46
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